The first-round margin reversed in the runoff, with the vote moving the same way in all 27 states
What the data show
An independent study, taking no side, made to bring data to a debate of opinions. It may contain errors: see why it exists and how to help.
Comments
Notes
See the noteshow each number in the text was calculated, with the source and the data to download
Explore
The same numbers as in the chapters, to look up place by place: questions in plain sentences about any place, how each region and each state added up to the reversal of the margin, the states on the map and in the table, the municipalities with filters and search, and the estimates, each with its interval.
Ask the data
Build the question by changing the underlined parts. The answer comes from the TSE's official count, the same one used in the chapters, and says where each number comes from.
Margin waterfall
States
The map, the state card and the table work together: the state you point to in one appears in the others.
Municipalities
The filter applies to the rankings, the scatter plots and the funnel plot; the search looks through all municipalities.
Hypothesis & uncertainty
The study's estimates, each with its 95% interval, and what could not be estimated reliably, with the reason.
Live count
At the end of the count
How the page worked
Method and sources
How the study was done, where the data come from and what they do not allow us to say. Also here: the notes on each piece of data, the glossary and the files to redo the calculations.
Step-by-step calculation
Sources
Party classification
Hypotheses and uncertainty
Limitations of the study
Notes on the data
What could not be estimated
Glossary
All the study's terms, in alphabetical order. It is the same list that appears when you hover over, tap or tab to a term with a dotted underline.